After a drone attack on U.S. troops in northeastern Jordan that has been to Iran, tensions across the Middle East have started rising.

As of February second, American forces have begun to carry out strikes on Iran-backed targets in Iraq and Syria, with President Biden promising that the U.S. will respond forcefully to these violent provocations.

 Does this make war with Iran likely or even inevitable? 

Not necessarily. Biden administration officials have stated that these strikes are supposed to send a message that Iran and their proxies must not attack American troops.

While this is reassuring news, it also raises the risks of a conflict in the region.

Most of the current geopolitical tension stems from the deadly October seventh attack against Israel by Hamas and their allies, which has caused a war that has killed nearly 30,000 people.

Since then, attacks by Iranian proxies on both American allies and global shipping lanes have only become more frequent.

If war is not necessarily inevitable, then what will happen?

What seems to be the most likely event is that there will be an increased U.S. military presence in the region, primarily as a way to deter Iranian attacks. Since Iran tends to fight with proxies, Israel, Saudi Arabia and America are mainly focused on confronting those threats.

If tensions continue to rise, more conflict and U.S. strikes across the Middle East seem inevitable.

But there is no need to fear because it seems like war is not going to happen because Iran would like to keep their hands clean and the U.S. does not desire a confrontation, which could easily lead to an Afghanistan-like quagmire. 

Another possible consequence of this could be the U.S. completely cutting off all payments to Iran used to deter the development of nuclear weapons.

While it is within the realm of possibility that a war between America and Iran will take place at some point, It is overall unlikely that this current situation will be the spark that lights the Middle East ablaze; in essence, this certainly does not mean that World War III will start in the Middle East.